Thursday, August 23, 2012

The CNN Recession - How true and how it affects us?


Having just returned from a short cruise in sunnier climes, I feel fresh and ready to jump headlong into what I believe will be a very exciting and challenging year ahead.

As usual, on vacation, I have the opportunity to spend a little 'more time reading, and this time was no exception. I took with me a fascinating book by Malcolm Gladwell, Blink. Malcolm Gladwell is the author of another best-selling book, The Tipping Point and Blink is equally captivating and challenging.

In essence, in the book, Gladwell probes the ability of the human mind to make decisions with precision what we consider normal to believe that a lack of information. He calls this process "thin cut" and in no way suggests that all decisions should be based on more than one input intuitive, but it raises a question of mind because the mind has the power, with so little information to make accurate decisions apparently .

This argument has always fascinated me and I personally have learned to use intuition more powerful than my wife to help in decision making. Gladwell goes so far to study the results of different groups of buyers, those who carefully research a product purchase decisions and who makes a purchase more intuitive. The study found a trend towards more successful decisions being made intuitively with purchases of higher value.

As I mentioned in previous articles that my personal belief is that we have too much information at our disposal and that often creates a form of "constipation decision." Many years ago the media industry was behind the curve of the information so that the delay to us as readers and consumers has been aggravated. Now, the media are able to create the story based on our search trends on google or yahoo and very recently, someone told me that this economic challenge which could be in the future as the recession ... CNN really interesting thought.

My point of this discussion is that in every case, when it came to buying a house or build a house, I had the habit of doing a lot of research and study to support my decision, my wife, however, would have a "feeling "either for or against my decision. In any case, has assured its support of a transaction successfully our families from the point of view. In odd occasion where I continued on with my test data, but against his intuition, the purchase was not successful!

I'm not suggesting we all run out and buy homes without thought, but I am suggesting that the challenge now is that consumers are involved as a deer caught in headlights, confused because of information overload and not in default to take decisions and, therefore, avoiding errors. The truth is that there are many opportunities that are overlooked in the process. For the first time buyer, the prices are very favorable, the selection is better than it has been for many years and mortgage rates are at a historic low. For the investor, access to credit is positive and there are some excellent opportunities to acquire properties that cash flow or offer growth potential upside as the economy cycles back. Those people who have the courage to move now will benefit in future. There is a saying I like that indicates that there are three types of people in the world, those who make things happen, those who watch things happen and those who said "what happened?" It 'very relevant to the economic reality of today I believe.

Reflecting on the experience cruise ship, I remember a time when 2,500 people were spending freely, laughing and joking, telling me that I, personally, were not affected by economic problems and were free of media impact. When I arrived in Canada I have found friends asking really, how many people in Western Canada will have a T4 slip that varies radically 2007-2008 to 2009. The answer is very few! Most people are still collecting pay checks the same as two years ago, pay less in interest payments (substantially!) and can access the capital necessary for their home purchase.

In 2009 we hope you do not just "watch things happen," I know which group I belong.

Happy New Year .......

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